2009 July 30 » New Jersey CFO

“I think we will probably have to begin raising rates sometime in the not-too-distant future,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser told Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal in an interview.

And listen to what Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch’s former chief investment strategist, is now saying, that America is still blowing bubbles with its heavy, excessive borrowing. The US government in a post-bubble environment simply is genetically incapable of waiting for economic growth to rebound to soak up excesses, and instead reflexively acts without thinking in the face of growing voter unease over job losses.

So the US has now embarked on Japan’s post-bubble strategy, which it did during the 1990s, that is, to support excess capacity by reflating the economy via gunning the mints, moves which stymie the post-bubble consolidation forces.

Easy money is like tequila, tasty, but dangerous, another inflation hawk, Dallas Fed official Richard Fisher, has warned

Skeptics point out the inherent bias of a government-funded mission to identify human-induced climate change. If you don’t find it, does your funding go away?

Government funding, political agendas and computer models make for a dangerous concoction; just ask Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

A Primer On Cap and Trade – Ashby Foote, Jackson Clarion-Ledger

NEW YORK (Fortune) — If the credit markets have been an iceberg over the past year, the private equity business has been frozen as solid as a prehistoric glacier. Buyout giants like KKR, Blackstone, and Bain Capital — who just a couple of years ago were vying to one-up each other on a monthly basis with new mega-deals — have been in a virtual hibernation for months.

In the first half of 2009, just $24 billion in deals were completed globally. That compares to $131 billion last year and an astounding $528 billion in deal volume in 2007. This year’s first-half total is the lowest since 1996, when the buyout industry was much smaller. There were only three loans extended to fund leveraged buyouts through June, the fewest number since 1985 according to Dealogic.

In recent weeks, though, the stock market has begun to rally and the cost of borrowing has begun to fall. So it’s natural to wonder: Is the buyout market about to heat up again?

Don’t be on it, say industry insiders. Private equity is still in the early stages of a long thaw.

Digesting last cycle’s deals

The problem is not that firms don’t have money to spend. In fact, according to private equity research firm PitchBook, the industry is sitting on an estimated $400 billion worth of so-called dry powder, or money raised but not yet invested.

No, the reason that dealmaking isn’t going to come roaring back is that private-equity firms are simply still too busy trying to digest the companies they swallowed during the boom years.

Why Private Equity Is in a Deep Freeze – Telis Demos, Fortune

Follow the money: The E.U. has agreed to begin talks with the United States on a pact to share counterterror info on European citizens’ bank transactions, but past CIA covert activities render some wary, The Irish Times tells — while Deutsche Presse Agentur has the very prospect “uniting disparate parts of the German political spectrum in opposition.” The Swiss government has extended a list of individuals and groups linked to al Qaeda or the Taliban who are banned from travelling through Switzerland or having Swiss accounts, Dow Jones Newswires relates. Foreign terrorists’ and insurgents’ “use of third party countries for training, fundraising, and transit is not merely an operational phenomenon, but an economic one as well,” the author of a paper titled “Foreign Fighters and Their Economic Impact” summarizes in The Counterterrorism Blog.. Somali pirates are probably using the ransom money they collect from hijacking western ships to finance Islamic terrorists, The Daily Telegraph has a parliamentary committee reporting.

Fear itself: “Swine flu is not the only thing we are neurotic wrecks about. Over at the Home Office, ministers warn about the likelihood of an al Qaeda terrorist attack,” says a Daily Mail op-ed on “today’s culture of fear.” As to which, Prison Planet maintains its drum beat of reporting on pandemic-flu-related mass graves being dug and martial law plans being laid here and abroad — while The Pakistan Daily assures readers it’s not the H1N1 virus we should fear but the pending vaccine. Two thirds of New Zealand travelers now view the world as more dangerous than when they first went abroad — with terrorism, crime and disease topping their worries, NZCity has an insurance company survey showing.

New Jersey CFO

“I think we will probably have to begin raising rates sometime in the not-too-distant future”

A Primer On Cap and Trade

Why private equity is in a deep freeze

Follow the money

Analysis & Commentary