Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti look at U.S. job market data and provide some perspective. After severe job losses in early 2009, the pace of job losses slowed starting in April and the July numbers have brought more respite. Non-farm payroll job losses were 247,000 in July. However, the private sector lost 254,000 jobs. This is considerably better than analysts expected (around 325,000) but not good enough to claim that we are in the middle of a strong and sustainable recovery. Looking at the recessions of the post-war period, average monthly job losses ranged between 150 thousand and 260 thousand. Average monthly losses in this recession are still at 350 thousand. For the first four months of the year, the average was at 648 thousand. The improvement with respect to the first part of the year is clear. The improvement with respect to what we are used to seeing in recessionary periods is much less clear cut. Today’s numbers are not exactly what you call good news, at least not in absolute terms. In relative terms, after skirting a near depression, markets seem to consider 247 thousand payroll losses a breath of fresh air. See Easing Job Losses Don’t Change Weak Prospects for U.S. Recovery.
