Just as freedom of speech does not include the right to yell “fire” if there isn’t one, Joshua Muravchik argues that neither does freedom of worship afford for the building of whatever, wherever one chooses. Before endorsing the building of a mosque blocks from Ground Zero, he’d like to know more about the beliefs behind the center, especially those of the “moderate” Imam whose current project is ranking the world’s countries according to their “Islamicity” and who sees Osama bin Laden as “made in the USA.” Read More

 

On July 9, 2010 at the FreedomFest Conference in Las Vegas (www.freedomfest.com), FEE president Lawrence W. Reed debated University of Nevada-Las Vegas economist Bernard Malamud on the subject of the New Deal policies of Franklin Roosevelt. This is a video recording of that 50-minute debate.

 

This forecaster is saying something that I thought was just common sense and I mentioned a year ago or more. That is to say, without a vibrant middle class to effect the necessary 70 % consumption that represented the bulk of activity supporting the “old economy”, how is the revival supposed to occur? What we need is a very focused new industrial policy that puts the USA back in the saddle and in the front of the parade. Please forgive my mixed metaphors!

Brian J. Schuettler

Collapse of middle class means there’s no fuel for recovery, Gerald Celente argues

The US economic recovery in recent quarters is little more than a “cover-up” and the world is headed for a “Greatest Depression,” complete with social unrest and class warfare, says a renowned economic forecaster.

Gerald Celente, head of the Trends Research Institute, told Yahoo!News’ Tech Ticker that there’s no risk of a “double-dip recession” because the first “dip” never ended.

“We’re saying there’s no double dip, it never ended,” Celente said. “We’re looking at the Greatest Depression. There’s no way out of this without [rebuilding] productive capacity. You can’t print [money to get] out of it.”

Celente, who has been credited with predicting the 1987 stock market crash, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subprime mortgage crisis of recent years, said the US and other developed countries can expect to see the sort of social unrest the world witnessed in Greece this year once government attempts to shore up the economy fail and lawmakers turn to “austerity measures” to plug gaping budget holes.

 

Bank Bailout Bingo: How Both Parties Exploit Populist Anger

Two years after the TARP vote, hazy memories of the financial panic have created a bipartisan hatred of bailouts, as expressed in campaign commercials across the country.

 

Just how much should Uncle Sam do to help Americans buy their own homes?

For 70 years — and for the last 15 in particular — the answer has been: Whatever it takes.

Now, policymakers are pausing to reconsider. In the next few months, they’ll weigh whether there can be too much of a good thing when it comes to helping families finance the American Dream.

The rethink could mean a shake-up for a mortgage market addicted to government subsidies.

“This process of figuring out the government’s role is going to involve some hard choices,” says Alyssa Katz, author of Our Lot: How Real Estate Came to Own Us. “The moment you start changing the nature of what is guaranteed by the government, what is subsidized, you start to change the alignment of winners and losers. … We took for granted that anyone could get a mortgage.”

Using guarantees and tax breaks, the government pushed homeownership past 69% in 2004. Then it all came crashing down.

Housing prices started crumbling in 2007, panicking financial markets, forcing the government to seize mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and pushing the economy into the worst recession since the 1930s. Homeownership has fallen below 67%.

Now, Washington is preparing to rebuild the national mortgage market atop the ruins of Fannie and Freddie. The proposal, due early next year from the Obama administration, could make it harder to buy a home by reducing available credit or requiring bigger down pay-ments. Low-income renters might get more government help.

Feds Rethink Policies That Encourage Home Ownership – USA Today

 

Taleb Says Government Bonds to Collapse, Avoid Stocks – Bloomberg

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who warned that unforeseen events can roil markets in “The Black Swan,” said he is “betting on the collapse of government bonds” and that investors should avoid stocks.

“I’m very pessimistic,” he said at the Discovery Invest Leadership Summit in Johannesburg today. “By staying in cash or hedging against inflation, you won’t regret it in two years.”

Treasuries have rallied amid speculation the global economic recovery is faltering, driving yields on two-year notes to a record low of 0.4892 percent today. The Federal Reserve yesterday reversed plans to exit from monetary stimulus and decided to keep its bond holdings level to support an economic recovery it described as weaker than anticipated. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 16 percent between April 23 and July 2, the biggest slump during the bull market.

The financial system is riskier than it was before the 2008 crisis that led the U.S. economy to the worst contraction since the Great Depression, Taleb said.

 

Back to Worrying about Worse-Case Scenarios – Tom Petruno, LA Times

The fear pushing government bond yields sharply lower isn’t about whether the world is facing just a temporary economic slowdown. Rather, it’s dread of a downturn that would set off a deflationary spiral.

 

The Wisdom and Folly of the ’03 Bush Tax Cuts – Peter Coy, BusinessWeek

You won’t find a truer believer in the big tax cuts of the George W. Bush era than Glenn Hubbard, the lanky, 51-year-old economist who is dean of Columbia Business School. The Republican academic was instrumental in designing the tax cuts, first as a Bush campaign insider and then as the President’s first chief economic adviser. The idea behind the cuts, enacted in 2001 and 2003, was to encourage work, savings, and investment, thus stimulating long-term economic growth. Hubbard is especially proud of the 2003 cut in taxes on dividends and capital gains, which he calls “the most pro-growth tax reform that anybody did since Kennedy.”

Now that the Bush tax cuts are coming up for renewal—they expire on Dec. 31 unless Congress acts—Hubbard has a queasy feeling about them. The cuts, he says, have been undermined by years of deficits. Until the trajectory of spending changes, he says, “deficits are just future taxes. You’re just talking about taxes today vs. taxes tomorrow.”

Precisely. The debate over extension of the Bush tax cuts is the opening salvo of a generation-defining fight. With Medicare and Social Security spending set to balloon as baby boomers retire and grow old, the terms of the conflict are crystallizing: What do Americans expect from their government? How much are they entitled to, how much are they willing to contribute—and what are they willing to do without?

Some people who once championed tax cuts unconditionally have a new catchphrase—or more precisely an old one that’s been repurposed: There’s no free lunch. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, an influential voice in favor of the first Bush tax cut in 2001, told NBC’s Meet the Press on Aug. 1 that extending the cuts without making offsetting spending reductions could prove “disastrous.” Said Greenspan: “I’m very much in favor of tax cuts, but not with borrowed money.”

The Bush tax cuts were the product of a rare confluence of political and economic forces we may never see again. They were premised on a sturdy principle: People, both as workers and as investors, respond logically to the incentives that government sets for them. The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 lowered the highest income tax rate (on individuals earning above $200,000 and households above $250,000) from 39.6 percent to 35 percent by 2006 and cut lower brackets’ rates by similar amounts—encouraging people to work more by letting them keep more of the fruits of their labor. The 2003 package accelerated the cuts and added the reductions in capital gains and dividends that Hubbard is so proud of because they reward people for saving and investing.

How did the cuts work? The long-planned 2001 tax reduction took effect during the mild 2001 recession and probably helped make it milder, says Joel Slemrod, founding director of the Office of Tax Policy Research at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business. But the cuts weren’t designed as Keynesian energy shots. They were supposed to promote long-term growth by realigning incentives. On that score their legacy is hard to measure because there’s no way to know how the economy would have fared without them. Many companies instituted dividends to take advantage of the tax break, but whether that induced more investment is unclear. What’s indisputable is that deficits grew while the U.S. economy rumbled along in slow gear: Growth averaged 2.3 percent a year from the end of the 2001 recession through December 2007, at which point the economy tumbled into the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

 

Senate Leaves Credit-Starved Small Biz Hanging – Los Angeles Times

Small businesses desperate for government help getting loans will have to wait at least until September before Congress moves on long-awaited legislation to pay for higher loan guarantees, lower fees and other breaks.

As the Senate adjourned for its summer recess this week, a key bill to spur lending to small businesses remained stuck in a partisan stalemate.

As a result, the next month or more may be angst-ridden for many business owners. Nationwide, 995 government-backed small business loans that have been given initial approval since last spring are now stuck in limbo until Congress acts.

 

Is the Unemployment Problem Cyclical or Structural? – Mark Thoma, CBS

Economists define three types of unemployment: frictional, structural, and cyclical:

Frictional unemployment is defined as the unemployment that occurs because of people moving or changing occupations. Demographic change can also play a role in this type of unemployment since young or first-time workers tend to have higher-than-normal turnover rates as they settle into a long-term occupation. An important distinguishing feature of this type of unemployment, unlike the two that follow it, is that it is voluntary on the part of the worker.

Structural unemployment is defined as unemployment arising from technical change such as automation, or from changes in the composition of output due to variations in the types of products people demand. For example, a decline in the demand for typewriters would lead to structurally unemployed workers in the typewriter industry.

Cyclical unemployment is defined as workers losing their jobs due to business cycle fluctuations in output, i.e. the normal up and down movements in the economy as it cycles through booms and recessions over time.

The Committee to Defraud the World

 A Moral Question - Not A Political One, A Shareholder-Not Just a "Stakeholder", A Time To Repent, AIG and all that....., Analysis & Commentary, Bilderbergers 1 USA 0, Collateral Damage, Coming Social Unrest, Consumption Ran the Old Economy, Coup d'etat in America, Death of the Dollar, Deflation-Inflation-Stagflation, Devaluation, Did they ever hear of GAAP?, Dismal Science-Ignorant Scientists?, Economic Analysis Isn't Science, Even the Terminator Can't Help California, Goldman: Underwriter or Undertaker?, Greenspan is kind of stupid, Insolvency, It Is Supposed to be a Republic!, Jacksonian Democracy, Let's Call What It Is - DEPRESSION, Moral Hazard, No Bank Is Indispensable, Obama's Hypocrisy, Our phony middle class, Patience is a virtue...Delusion is a vice, Small Business-Bedrock of America, Smaller Can Be Better, Social Security Time bomb, Socialism, TARP fruit loops, The American Financial Oligarchy, The Arrogance of Power, The Consequences of Greed, The End of American Capitalism As We Know It? - Discuss, The excellent adventures of Ben Bernanke, The Financial Elite, The Importance of Strategic Planning, The Inherent Disorder of Empires, The Intrusion of UNLAWFUL Authority, The Judeo-Christian Political Coalition, The New American Socialism, The Obama OMG magic factory, The Sorry State Of American Manufacturing, The Suffering Poor, Those Quarky Accounting Rules, Time For A New Third Party, Truth In Charity, Unemployment Catastrophe, Unindicted Co-Conspiritors, Unintended Consequences, USA Is the New Japan, Wage Deflation, We Have Become Beggars To The World, Who Guarantees the Guarantor?-You Do!, Who owns Congress-Still!  No Responses »
Aug 012010
 

To say now that ‘No one knew’ or ‘I was mistaken’ or ‘I was just doing as I was told’ is another in a series of lies and deceptions that have supported one of the greatest frauds in the history of the world.

But this is not history. This episode of fraud is still playing itself out now. And to fail to understand the depth and breadth of this madness is to place oneself in peril, and in the power of those who are twisting the Western economic and political system even now to satisfy their lust for wealth and power. You are only successful if you can keep what you kill.

Glass-Steagall fell after a decade long campaign involving hundreds of millions in lobbyist money spread lavishly around the Congress, led by Sanford Weil of Citibank, supported by key banking and political figures in the Congress and at the Fed. It involved Senator Phil Gramm, who helped to put a stake in the heart of the financial regulatory process under the Reagan free markets banner, and who recently said the problem is that the middle class were a bunch of whiners. As did his wife Wendy, who as the chairperson of the CFTC had exempted Enron from regulatory oversight, and then left to take a position there on its board of directors.

Like the Mortgage Backed Securities scandal it involved surprisingly few principal players, like Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin, who used their power and influence to silence and ostracize critics, and promote a climate of reckless disregard for the public trust under the meme of ‘efficient markets’ and deregulation. This might have been an innocent policy error if it did not involve premeditated theft on a massive scale, followed by cover ups, denials, and a control fraud that exists even today.

But it also involved literally thousands of collaborators and enablers, from mainstream media people, economists, analysts, and other thought leaders to politicians and regulators who saw that it was to their advantage to at least passively support this scheme which they knew very well was a fairy tale, a fraud, class warfare by a new name, but were able to hide their own guilty consciences behind self-serving rationalization and the shield of plausible deniability.

History, and hopefully the justice system, will sort this all out. It is difficult, even now, to get one’s mind around the enormity of it. This is its most powerful weapon. Who could be such monsters, so amoral, so destructively sociopathic? Future generations will regard it as an episode of madness, driven by a few people in a tight circle of self-reinforcing thought, people with remarkably similar cultural and educational backgrounds, driven by a consuming lust for power, that were able to dupe and delude an entire nation made vulnerable by propaganda, a co-opted press, and apathy.

In the meanwhile all the great mass of people can do is to watch, and wait, and seek to protect themselves from these ravening wolves grown increasingly desperate, as their arrogance comes to a tragic fall. They can vote out incumbents, but the parties choose the candidates, and too often they resemble competing crime families of special interests more than pillars of a representative government, saying one thing to get elected and doing another thing once in office.

This is the approach of trouble when hubris is at its height, and the few feel they have everything to gain and nothing to lose, if only they can gain more power, and necessarily become more ruthless. They are trapped in a cycle of fear and greed. The fear provokes the lies and the cover ups, but the greed promotes the extension of the fraud and the theft, requiring even more lies and cover ups. The operative word is ‘over reach,’ in a classic late stage Ponzi scheme. This will undoubtedly add to the confusion as the truth is assaulted by the big lie.

The last vestiges of polite society are often shed as the downfall reaches it final conclusion, at the end, when all is revealed, at last. And so there will be great danger.

Jesse’ s Cafe http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/committee-to-defraud-world.html

 

If you are worried about the future of Social Security, join the crowd.

Social Security Jitters? Better Prepare Now New York Times (hat tip reader Glenn Stehle)

 
Correct me if I’m wrong Sandy, but if I kill all the golfers, they’re gonna lock me up and throw away the key.
Carl Spackler



For simplicity, but also quite accurately, you could define the Modern Era with Newton’s Second Law: F=MxA. Though more accurately for this piece, we can use the derivative Acceleration = Force divided by Mass. Simply, this is one equation that defines the movement and shaping of physical things. At it’s foundation, the Modern Era has been the human use of fossil fuel energy, coal, oil, and more recently natural gas, to shape and move physical things. Using these energy supplies, these forces, has allowed humanity in the past two-centuries, to reshape and move about this planet in ways unprecedented from the rest of human history. Now there’s been plenty of good in this, but also, and much less debated, plenty bad. Whether good or bad, this reshaping and movement allowed the transformation of locality, the ability to transcend defining by the local, leading paradoxically to ever increasing homogeneity.

On physics and money Joe Costello

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