Wall Street blogs have become a serious enterprise of late affirmed by the recent acquisition, for an undisclosed sum, of Footnoted.org by Morningstar Inc., the Chicago-based fund research giant and CBS Corp.’s 2007 acquisition of Wall Strip for a reported $5 million.

These homespun sites break news, offer wit and insight that wasn’t even available a few years ago. Some have risen to the point of being must-reads on a daily basis. Nouriel Roubini, the economist, is a blogger and reader of blogs. One blog has steady traffic from the Federal Reserve and Congressional staffers. Another is rumored to be read by hedge fund executive Ken Griffin and Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Blogs have had their scoops too. In June, Clusterstock was first to report that Merrill Lynch brokerage chief Dan Sontag was in trouble at Merrill Lynch. He resigned a few weeks later.

On the flip side, some blogs stink. They don’t post frequently enough, or worse, they simply aggregate and rip off.

What follows, in my opinion, is the best of the best. I’ve limited the list to include sites that combine news and analysis on Wall Street, skipping the stockpickers or pure investing sites. Some in the top 10 are focused on the economy, but include the world of broker/dealers and banks as part of their mission. For purely economic blogs see WSJ.com’s piece from July 2009. I’ve also excluded blogs run by major news organizations such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Financial Times.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704240004575085901098514146.html

 

Prosperity: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can talk all day about doing everything possible to sweeten a sour economy. Monetary policy is pretty much exhausted. It’s Congress that could act – but won’t.

‘We remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation’s productive potential in a context of price stability.” Those were the words the Fed chief hoped would have a healing effect on an economy battered by years of housing and lending policies hijacked for ideological purposes.

But what more can Ben Bernanke do?

The Rebooting of America: We Are Way Off Track – Editorial, IBD

 

  • Andy Grove on the Need for US Job Creation and Industrial Policy – 07/03/2010 – Yves Smith
  • Steve Keen’s Scary Minsky Model – 07/04/2010 – Yves Smith
  •  

    Austerity is stupid, stimulus is dangerous, lying is optimal, economic choices are not scalar Steve Waldman

    I’ve been on whatever planet I go to when I’m not writing. Don’t ask, your guess is as good as mine.

    When I checked out out a few weeks ago, there was a debate raging on “fiscal austerity”. Checking back in, it continues to rage. In the course of about a half an hour, I’ve read about ten posts on the subject. See e.g. Martin Wolf and Yves Smith, Mike Konczal, and just about everything Paul Krugman has written lately. While I’ve been writing, Tyler Cowen has a new post, which is fantastic. Mark Thoma has delightfully named one side of the debate the “austerians”. Surely someone can come up with a cleverly risqué coinage for those in favor of stimulus?

     

    AMERICA’S GDP is growing, employment is finally expanding and the stockmarket is buoyant. Yet one thing has not changed: the Federal Reserve’s monetary pedal remains firmly pressed to the floor. For more than a year it has kept its short-term interest-rate target near zero while pledging to keep it there for an “extended period”. It has also bought $1.7 trillion of long-term bonds, primarily mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to keep long-term interest rates down.

    That is unsettling some inside the Fed, fuelling speculation it will soon signal an exit from that ultra-easy monetary policy, perhaps even by altering its “extended period” commitment when its next two-day policy meeting wraps up on April 28th.

    The most vocal dissident is Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Fed’s longest-serving policymaker, who has twice formally objected to the Fed’s “extended period” language. That commitment plus zero rates, he explained on April 7th, lead “banks and investors to search for yield… take on additional risk [and] increase leverage”. He argued the Fed should soon raise rates to 1% to “end the borrowing subsidy”.

    The next day Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, voiced a different concern: that the excess bank reserves created by the Fed’s MBS purchases create the potential for high inflation. He advocated selling $15 billion-25 billion of MBS a month, which would clear the Fed’s inventory in five years instead of the 30 it would take for the bonds to mature.

    The rest of the Fed and its chairman, Ben Bernanke, have listened politely but are not ready to drop or even water down the “extended period” language, much less raise rates. Dropping the commitment would be tantamount to a tightening of monetary policy as bond yields rise in anticipation of short-term rate hikes. Mr Bernanke has already said the Fed would eventually sell some MBS, but not now. By pushing up long-term rates that too would be a tightening of monetary policy.

    Bank credit is contracting and getting more expensive. Excess bank reserves will not lead to inflation so long as the Fed can still raise interest rates, which it can. Indeed, the Fed has an embarrassment of ways to tamp down inflationary pressure when the time comes, from raising interest rates on excess reserves to selling bonds to telling banks to tighten lending standards. It has far fewer tools at its disposal for battling deflation, not a remote risk.

    Still, as long as the recovery proceeds, the debate cannot be put off forever. The Fed will spend a lot of its policy meeting talking about how to talk about its exit. The Bank of Canada has helpfully provided a tutorial. On April 20th it dropped its own commitment to keeping its short-term rate at 0.25% until the second half of this year, citing stronger growth and firmer inflation than expected. “The need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus,” it said. Bond yields and the Canadian dollar rose in response.

    The Fed also sees its “extended period” commitment as conditional. It does not mean six months, as many seem to think, but only as long as unemployment remains high and inflation (both actual and expected) stays low. If those things change, so will interest rates.

     

    Social Security taxes fund a thing known as Social Security benefits. Analysts of this system consider them together in order to determine whether the program is or isn’t progressive.

    full article

     

    Larry Summers is reportedly leaving later this year, and Andrew Cockburn reports that Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s acutely verbal Chief of Staff is said to be looking for other employment, preferably a high paying job on Wall Street with little work and enormous perks and privileges.

    This is the sort of thing that one would expect to be happening at the end of the first term of a President, five years into the job. Perhaps that event is being moved up because Obama is likely to be a one term president, in one of the most spectacular flame outs from high, and in retrospect misplaced, expectations since the Segway.

    Obama was clearly the wrong man for the job. He might have been the kind of reformer for the good times, when you really do not need him, dedicated to getting the various squabbling parties to hold hands and sing Kumbaya. Unfortunately, a crisis demands leadership, and Obama is all fluff in that department. Leaders lead, they do not hold other people up as the leaders, and take them to task for their failure to do the risky things when their leader hides behind a non-existent consensus. I hate to say this, but both Clinton and W were far superior leaders, unfortunately with deeply flawed visions and moral compasses.

    The Democrats are most likely looking at a November massacre in the election, unless some event occurs to pull the nation together such as an externally focused crisis.

    The problem of course is that if one looks at the alternatives, there are none too attractive in the Republican Party which is also deeply tarnished with the financial corruption that actually came to full flower under their stewardship with George W. And part of the reason that legislation for reform languishes is that the Republicans are openly in the camp of the corporatocracy, and obstructing any nascent reform attempts from a small core of independent minded legislators.

    Is it time for a Third Party as some have suggested? Maybe, although it seems more likely to me that it will take a much greater degree of pain and collapse for America to wake up and reform its system, from the Media to Washington to Wall Street. Splinter parties at the extremes appear probable in the short term.

    And then who knows what might be slouching towards Pennsylvania Avenue, its moment come round at last?

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/04/failed-presidency-and-country-adrift.html

     

    An Analogy for Good Government

    Riffing off of Lord Acton’s quote on liberty and good government, I came up with an analogy that was well-received at last month’s inaugural Acton on Tap. In his essay, “The History of Freedom in Antiquity,” Acton said the following: Now Liberty and good government do not exclude each other; and there are excellent reasons why they should go together; but they do not necessarily go together. Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. It is not for the sake of a good public administration that it is required, but for security in the pursuit of the highest objects of civil society, and of private life. I tried to think of an image or analogy that captured what Acton meant by “good government.” Perhaps not surprisingly, I came up with a sports analogy…

     

    Over at Public Discourse, Acton’s Samuel Gregg has just published a piece about the future of money. The issuance of money, he writes, is often associated with issues of national sovereignty, despite the fact that governments have long abused their monopoly of the money supply. Gregg argues, however, that the role played by mismanaged monetary policy in the 2008 financial crisis may well open up the opportunity to consider some truly radical options for how we supply money to the economy…

    Beyond Sovereignty: Money and its Future

     

    Richard Smith, a London-based capital markets information technology manager, was kind enough to provide an advance copy of his review for the book ECONned: How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism by Yves Smith, the author of the well-known financial blog Naked Capitalism.

    Mr. Smith (real name, and no relation to Yves) helped in the proofing of the copy and fact searches, so he was already well familiar with the text. Perhaps this makes him a not entirely dispassionate source, given the regard that even copy editors can obtain for their associated works. But I thought it was a very nice summary of many of the salient points, and that you would enjoy having the opportunity to read it.

    I intend to read the book in order to both learn something, and to be entertained as well. I love reading accounts of this period of time that are both authoritative and well-written, and understandable by the non-expert. Given the author’s performance on her blog, and her detailed industry knowledge and experience, it looks to be a ‘must read’ for those following the financial crisis and its associated developments.

    Reading ECONned
    By Richard Smith

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/03/guest-post-econned-book-review.html

     

    A Tale of Two Entrepreneurs

    NPR’s Morning Edition had a touching piece the other day that illustrated how great a blessing business can be, and just how terrible things can be when there’s no freedom to innovate, produce, and create wealth. Chana Joffe-Walt and Adam Davidson of Planet Money put together the narrative of George Sassine of Haiti and Fernando Capellan of the Dominican Republic, “Island Of Hispaniola Has Two Varied Economies.”

     

    The Economics of Calvin and Calvinism
    by Murray N. Rothbard on February 18, 2010

    [This article is excerpted from An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought, vol. 1, Economic Thought Before Adam Smith. An audio version of this Mises Daily, read by Jeff Riggenbach, is available as a free download.]

    “Calvin began with a sweeping theoretical defense of interest taking and then hedged it about with qualifications; the liberal Scholastics began with a prohibition of usury and then qualified it away.”

    John Calvin’s social and economic views closely parallel Luther’s, and there is no point in repeating them here. There are only two main areas of difference: their views on usury, and on the concept of the “calling,” although the latter difference is more marked for the later Calvinist Puritans of the 17th century.

    Calvin’s main contribution to the usury question was in having the courage to dump the prohibition altogether.

    This son of an important town official had only contempt for the Aristotelian argument that money is sterile. A child, he pointed out, knows that money is only sterile when locked away somewhere; but who in their right mind borrows to keep money idle? Merchants borrow in order to make profits on their purchases, and hence money is then fruitful.

    As for the Bible, Luke’s famous injunction only orders generosity towards the poor, while Hebraic law in the Old Testament is not binding in modern society. To Calvin, then, usury is perfectly licit, provided that it is not charged in loans to the poor, who would be hurt by such payment. Also, any legal maximum of course must be obeyed. And finally, Calvin maintained that no one should function as a professional moneylender.

    The odd result was that hedging his explicit pro-usury doctrine with qualification, Calvin in practice converged on the views of such Scholastics as Biel, Summenhart, Cajetan, and Eck. Calvin began with a sweeping theoretical defense of interest taking and then hedged it about with qualifications; the liberal Scholastics began with a prohibition of usury and then qualified it away. But while in practice the two groups converged and the Scholastics, in discovering and elaborating upon exceptions to the usury ban, were theoretically more sophisticated and fruitful, Calvin’s bold break with the formal ban was a liberating breakthrough in Western thought and practice. It also threw the responsibility for applying teachings on usury from the Church or state to the individual’s conscience. As Tawney puts it, “The significant feature in his [Calvin's] discussion of the subject is that he assumes credit to be a normal and inevitable incident in the life of a society.”[1]

    A more subtle difference, but in the long run perhaps having more influence on the development of economic thought, was the Calvinist concept of the “calling.” This new concept was embryonic in Calvin and was developed further by later Calvinists, and especially Puritans, in the late 17th century. Older economic historians, such as Max Weber, made far too much of the Calvinist as against Lutheran and Catholic conceptions of the “calling.” All these religious groups emphasized the merit of being productive in one’s labor or occupation, one’s “calling” in life. But there is, especially in the later Puritans, the idea of success in one’s calling as a visible sign of being a member of the elect. The success is striven for, of course, not to prove that one is a member of the elect destined to be saved but, assuming that one is in the elect by virtue of one’s Calvinist faith, to strive to labor and succeed for the glory of God. A Calvinist emphasis on postponement of earthly gratification led to a particular stress on saving. Labor or “industry” and thrift, almost for their own sake, or rather for God’s sake, were emphasized in Calvinism much more than in the other segments of Christianity.[2]

    The focus, then, both in Catholic countries and in Scholastic thought, became very different from that of Calvinism. The Scholastic focus was on consumption, the consumer, as the goal of labor and production. Labor was not so much a good in itself as a means toward consumption on the market. The Aristotelian balance, or golden mean, was considered a requisite of the good life, a life leading to happiness in keeping with the nature of man. And that balanced life emphasized the joys of consumption, as well as of leisure, in addition to the importance of productive effort.

    “The Scholastic focus was on consumption, the consumer, as the goal of labor and production.”

    In contrast, a rather grim emphasis on work and on saving began to be stressed in Calvinist culture. This de-emphasis on leisure of course fitted with the iconoclasm that reached its height in Calvinism — the condemnation of the enjoyment of the senses as a means of expressing religious devotion. One of the expressions of this conflict came over religious holidays, which Catholic countries enjoyed in abundance. To the Puritans, this was idolatry; even Christmas was not supposed to be an occasion for sensate enjoyment.

    There has been considerable dispute over the “Weber thesis,” propounded by the early-20th-century German economic historian and sociologist, Max Weber, which attributed the rise of capitalism and the Industrial Revolution to the late Calvinist concept of the calling and the resulting “capitalist spirit.” For all its fruitful insights, the Weber thesis must be rejected on many levels. First, modern capitalism, in any meaningful sense, begins not with the Industrial Revolution of 18th and 19th centuries but, as we have seen, in the Middle Ages and particularly in the Italian city-states. Such examples of capitalist rationality as double-entry bookkeeping and various financial techniques begin in these Italian city-states as well. All were Catholic.

    Indeed, it is in a Florentine account book of 1253 that there is first found the classic procapitalist formula: “In the name of God and of profit.”

    No city was more of a financial and commercial center than Antwerp in the 16th century, a Catholic center. No man shone as much as financier and banker as Jacob Fugger, a good Catholic from southern Germany. Not only that: Fugger worked all his life, refused to retire, and announced that “he would make money as long as he could.” A prime example of the Weberian “Protestant ethic” from a solid Catholic! And we have seen how the Scholastic theologians moved to understand and accommodate the market and market forces.

    On the other hand, while it is true that Calvinist areas in England, France, Holland, and the North American colonies prospered, the solidly Calvinist Scotland remained a backward and undeveloped area, even to this day.[3]

    But even if the focus on calling and labor did not bring about the Industrial Revolution, it might well have led to another outstanding difference between Calvinist and Catholic countries — a crucial difference in the development of economic thought. Professor Emil Kauder’s brilliant speculation to this effect will inform the remainder of this work. Thus Kauder:

    Calvin and his disciples placed work at the center of their social theology … All work in this society is invested with divine approval. Any social philosopher or economist exposed to Calvinism will be tempted to give labor an exalted position in his social or economic treatise, and no better way of extolling labor can be found than by combining work with value theory, traditionally the very basis of an economic system. Thus value becomes labor value, which is not merely a scientific device for measuring exchange rates but also the spiritual tie combining Divine Will with economic everyday life.[4]

    “A certain balanced hedonism is an integrated part of the Aristotelian theory of the good life.”

    In their extolling of work, the Calvinists concentrated on systematic, continuing industriousness, on a settled course of labor. Thus the English Puritan divine Samuel Hieron opined that “He that hath no honest business about which ordinarily to be employed, no settled course to which he may betake himself, cannot please God.”

    Particularly influential was the early-17th-century Cambridge University academic, the Rev. William Perkins, who did much to translate Calvinist theology into English practice. Perkins denounced four groups of men who had “no particular calling to walk in”: beggars and vagabonds; monks and friars; gentlemen who “spend their days in eating and drinking”; and servants, who allegedly spent their time waiting. All these were dangerous because unsettled and undisciplined. Particularly dangerous were wanderers, who “avoided the authority of all.” Furthermore, believed Perkins, the “lazy multitude was always inclined … to popish opinions, always more ready to play than to work; its members would not find their way to heaven.”[5]

    In contrast to the Calvinist glorification of labor, the Aristotelian-Thomist tradition was quite different:

    Instead of work, moderate pleasure-seeking and happiness form the center of economic actions, according to Aristotelian and Thomistic philosophy. A certain balanced hedonism is an integrated part of the Aristotelian theory of the good life. If pleasure in a moderate form is the purpose of economics, then following the Aristotelian concept of the final cause, all principles of economics including valuation must be derived from this goal. In this pattern of Aristotelian and Thomistic thinking, valuation has the function of showing how much pleasure can be derived from economic goods.[6]

    Hence, Great Britain, heavily influenced by Calvinist thought and culture, and its glorification of the mere exertion of labor, came to develop a labor theory of value, while France and Italy, still influenced by Aristotelian and Thomist concepts, continued the Scholastic emphasis on the consumer and his subjective valuation as the source of economic value. While there is no way to prove this hypothesis conclusively, the Kauder insight has great value in explaining the comparative development of economic thought in Britain and in the Catholic countries of Europe after the 16th century.

    Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995) was dean of the Austrian School. He was an economist, economic historian, and libertarian political philosopher. See Murray N. Rothbard’s article archives.

    This article is excerpted from An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought, vol. 1, Economic Thought Before Adam Smith. An audio version of this Mises Daily, read by Jeff Riggenbach, is available as a free download.

    .

    Notes

    [1] Richard H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism (1927, New York: New American Library, 1954), p. 95.

    [2] In contrast to the Catholics, to Luther, and probably to Calvin (who, however, was ambivalent on the subject), the Puritans were “postmillennialist,” i.e., they believed that human beings would have to establish the Kingdom of God on earth for a thousand years before Christ would return. The others were either “premillennialist” (Christ would return to earth and then set up a thousand years of the Kingdom of God on earth), or, like the Catholics, amillennialist (Christ would return period, and then the world would end). Postmillennialism, of course, tended to induce in its believers eagerness and even haste to get on with their own establishment of the Kingdom of God on earth so that Jesus could eventually return.

    [3] The fact that only late Calvinism developed this version of the calling indicates that Weber might have had his causal theory reversed: that the growth of capitalism might have led to a more accommodating Calvinism rather than the other way round. Weber’s approach holds up better in analyzing those societies, such as China, where religious attitudes seem to have crippled capitalist economic development. Thus, see the analysis of religion and economic development in China and Japan by the Weberian Norman Jacobs, The Origin of Modern Capitalism and Eastern Asia (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 1958).

    [4] Emil Kauder, A History of Marginal Utility Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1965), p. 5.

    [5] Michael Walzer, The Revolution of the Saints: A Study in the Origins of Radical Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1965), p. 216; see also pp. 206–26.

    [6] Kauder, op. cit., note 7, p. 9.

     

    “We cannot have reform of the system driven by what each country sees that it needs for itself,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, told the Davos forum on Saturday. “We need to have co-ordination – we cannot afford to have different solutions in different parts of the world.”

    Bankers fight controls
    As Davos ends, bankers fight to fend off controls on matters ranging from bonuses to proprietary trading and derivatives.

     

    Bill Bonner writes at The Daily Reckoning:

    The stock market has not been corrected. It could easily get cut in half in the next six months. (We’re leaving our ‘Crash Alert’ flying over the building with the gold balls…until stocks reach bargain prices.)

    The bond market could crash any time. The US is borrowing more money than ever before – trillions more. With such a huge increase in supply, demand…and prices…it should crack, sooner or later. Higher bond yields would send the whole economy into a much deeper depression.

    Even our gold holdings could lose 20%-30% of their value. And gold stocks? They could get killed in the next stock market downswing.

    Despite a truly monumental (albeit imbecilic) effort to revive the economy…the latest figures show the weakest post-recession recovery ever. Jobs are missing. Consumer credit is shrinking. Inflation is going negative. There is no real recovery…it’s a mirage created by government spending.

    Monetary policy is useless (banks won’t lend; consumers won’t borrow). And fiscal policy, while apparently more effective, destroys wealth; it doesn’t add to it.

    The more the government increases spending, to offset the correction, the more the economy becomes addicted to it. It’s like trying to cure an alcoholic by introducing him to heroin. Take away the government spending – as Japan tried to do – and the economy collapses into a deeper depression. Not only that, but the budget deficit actually grows!

    In other words, the feds spend money they don’t have trying to fight a correction. This creates huge budget deficits, but it makes it look like the economy is recovering. So they slack off. Then, they discover that their fiscal stimulus didn’t really create any genuine economic activity. Take away the fiscal stimulus and the economy collapses again…reducing tax receipts and widening the deficit. In effect, the cure became a disease of its own! Now they can’t cut government spending. The economy depends on it. Instead, they’re locked into a debt spiral…more and more deficits…higher and higher debt…down, down, down, until…

    ..until the whole thing finally crashes.

    Japan faced this problem in the ’90s. It eased off its stimulus program…and the economy collapsed. Now, it’s become hooked on government spending. Where does it lead? We repeat this prescient note from The Telegraph, which we sent you yesterday:

    “This is the year when Tokyo finds it can no longer borrow at 1pc from a captive bond market, and when it must foot the bill for all those fiscal packages that seemed such a good idea at the time…

    “Once the dam breaks, debt service costs will tear the budget to pieces. The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE [quantitative easing...aka 'printing money']. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation…”

    But we’re not worried. Somehow it will all work out. Americans are still trying to get even. They still believe that the stock market will recover – fully. They still think the Fed is in control…and that our economists know what they are doing. They are delusional, in other words.

     

    Barack Obama ran for president as a man of the people, standing up to Wall Street as the global economy melted down in that fateful fall of 2008. He pushed a tax plan to soak the rich, ripped NAFTA for hurting the middle class and tore into John McCain for supporting a bankruptcy bill that sided with wealthy bankers “at the expense of hardworking Americans.” Obama may not have run to the left of Samuel Gompers or Cesar Chavez, but it’s not like you saw him on the campaign trail flanked by bankers from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. What inspired supporters who pushed him to his historic win was the sense that a genuine outsider was finally breaking into an exclusive club, that walls were being torn down, that things were, for lack of a better or more specific term, changing.

    Then he got elected.

    What’s taken place in the year since Obama won the presidency has turned out to be one of the most dramatic political about-faces in our history. Elected in the midst of a crushing economic crisis brought on by a decade of orgiastic deregulation and unchecked greed, Obama had a clear mandate to rein in Wall Street and remake the entire structure of the American economy. What he did instead was ship even his most marginally progressive campaign advisers off to various bureaucratic Siberias, while packing the key economic positions in his White House with the very people who caused the crisis in the first place. This new team of bubble-fattened ex-bankers and laissez-faire intellectuals then proceeded to sell us all out, instituting a massive, trickle-up bailout and systematically gutting regulatory reform from the inside.

    How could Obama let this happen? Is he just a rookie in the political big leagues, hoodwinked by Beltway old-timers? Or is the vacillating, ineffectual servant of banking interests we’ve been seeing on TV this fall who Obama really is?

    Whatever the president’s real motives are, the extensive series of loophole-rich financial “reforms” that the Democrats are currently pushing may ultimately do more harm than good. In fact, some parts of the new reforms border on insanity, threatening to vastly amplify Wall Street’s political power by institutionalizing the taxpayer’s role as a welfare provider for the financial-services industry. At one point in the debate, Obama’s top economic advisers demanded the power to award future bailouts without even going to Congress for approval — and without providing taxpayers a single dime in equity on the deals.

    How did we get here? It started just moments after the election — and almost nobody noticed.

    Previous Page

     

    By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns.

    A reader at Naked Capitalism asked us to respond to a recent article from the Christian Science Monitor asking Does US need a second stimulus to create jobs?

    Marshall Auerback has already done some heavy lifting – and taken all of the heat in the comments. He says emphatically yes.

    Now I want to take a crack at this. My short answer is no. But before I go into this, as an aside, I wanted to mention Marshall’s new smiling, happy picture up at the great blog New Deal 2.0 where he now writes.  Earlier, when Credit Writedowns was hosted at Blogger, he used a picture best described as a mug shot in his profile, but he has changed that one too (although he smiles there a little less). He thinks we haven’t noticed this sleight of hand.  Well I have! Once upon a time, Marshall wrote with a man I called all bearish, all the time this summer. Take a look at that post; you don’t see him smiling now do you? We have Lynn Parramore, New Deal 2.0’s editor to thank for making Marshall Auerback into an optimist.

     

    “Hindsight is a wonderful thing,” said Timothy W. Long, the chief bank
    examiner for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. “At the height of
    the economic boom, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell people to
    stop lending is hard to do.” Post Mortems Reveal Obvious Risks at Banks, NY Times

     

    Myths of Our Times

    By Paul Craig Roberts

    Humanity has endeavored for millennia to control evil with morality. In the American “superpower,” this effort has collapsed and failed. Continue

     

    JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and other bank behemoths have bulked up over the past year. But they’re not the only ones getting bigger these days.

    Dozens of small banks that were otherwise anonymous in the years leading up to the financial crisis have also enjoyed robust growth in recent months.

    Some of them have expanded so rapidly, in fact, that they have transformed themselves into what some argue is the next generation of regional banking leaders.

    Chicago’s MB Financial (MBFI), for example, drastically widened its deposit base by buying local rivals that failed. In September, the company made its boldest purchase yet when it scooped up 11 branches and $7 billion worth of deposits controlled by Corus Bankshares after Corus was seized by the FDIC.

    And with the fragmented Chicago banking landscape continuing to shift, MB Financial’s buying spree may be far from over.

    “We think there is quite a bit of opportunity in the area for similar transactions in the future,” said Mitchell Feiger, chief executive officer of MB Financial.

    Other fast-growing regional banks, such as Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP), have been buoyed by a resilient economy in their home market and diligent underwriting practices.

    The Houston, Texas-based lender has not only reported consistently higher profits so far this year, but it also recently hiked its dividend and was reportedly a key contender for Guaranty Bank, a significantly larger peer that failed in late August. Guaranty was eventually acquired by Spain’s BBVA.

    And some banks have simply managed to harness the broader market forces at work, including consumers’ flight from stocks to cash earlier this year and widespread discontent with larger banks in the wake of taxpayer bailouts.

    Signature Bank (SBNY), which operates solely within the New York metropolitan area, is one of those banks. Between July and September alone, the company reported almost double-digit growth in both loans and deposits, a feat that is not lost on many industry analysts.

    “That is pretty phenomenal,” said Andy Stapp, a senior equity research analyst at brokerage B. Riley & Company, who tracks Signature.

    Life at the top

    Of course, much of the spoils of the recent shakeup in the banking industry have gone to the biggest players in the business.

    Both JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) dramatically expanded their retail banking operations after they bought Washington Mutual and Wachovia respectively.

    Today, the nation’s 10 largest banks control approximately $3.4 trillion in deposits, according to recent FDIC data, $700 billion more than they did just a year ago.

    Some would even argue that the banking field is much more crowded these days with the entry of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), American Express and GMAC, all of whom got into the deposit-taking business last fall when they were unable to access traditional sources of liquidity.

    Still, that has hardly deterred many ambitious bankers looking to expand.

    Los Angeles-based City National (CYN), which caters largely to businesses as well as affluent customers, recently indicated it was looking to expand its presence in Northern California after it acquired a branch in the Silicon Valley region in late August.

    “Going to San Jose was always part of our plan,” said City National CEO Russell Goldsmith. “It was an attractive way to get into the third-largest city in California and complete the circle around the [San Francisco] Bay area.”

    Risks versus rewards

    Tepid loan demand has complicated growth plans for many ambitious banks, however.

    With unemployment now above 10%, Americans are broadly reining in their spending. Consumers and businesses remain hesitant to seek out credit, according to the most recent survey of senior bank loan officers by the Federal Reserve.

    And if forthcoming federal legislation requires banks to hold more capital, that could heighten the competition for customers.

    “It will be harder for banks to grow deposits, which is one of the reasons why we are so interested to get them now,” said MB Financial’s Feiger.

    If banks like MB Financial can navigate all those hurdles and aren’t constrained by issues like commercial real estate loan losses, the opportunities to grow could be huge, notes Aaron Deer, an equity bank analyst for Sandler O’Neill.

    With potentially hundreds of additional banks likely to fail in the months and years ahead, competition will continue to ease. And should credit remain tough to come by, banks will likely be able to fetch a premium even on new loans made to those borrowers with sterling credit.

    “My guess is the opportunities for organic growth is probably going to accelerate over the coming year,” said Deer. “Right now banks are finding very attractive lending opportunities.”

    Meet the New Leaders of Banking – David Ellis, CNNMoney

     

    The Job Report: Another month, another drop in payrolls. Will it ever occur to our leaders in Washington that what they’re doing isn’t working – and may actually be damaging our economy?

    News that the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% in October, its highest level since 1983, as the economy shed 190,000 nonfarm jobs, underscores the spectacular failure of the so-called fiscal stimulus to stimulate anything other than economic misery.

    Since the $787 billion stimulus was passed in February, the economy has lost 2.9 million jobs – for a total of 4.3 million since the end of 2008. The silver lining, some say, is the number of jobs lost each month is shrinking. But they lose sight of this: There’s no guarantee the economy’s 3.5% growth in the third quarter will continue.

    Indeed, some worry the economy is on a slow-growth path that will lead to permanently high joblessness, weaker income growth and fewer opportunities. The Blue Chip consensus of more than 50 economists nationwide expects unemployment to remain above 8% at least into 2012.

    Why should this be? Well, start with the fact that virtually all job growth comes from companies with fewer than 500 employees, and that startups and very small businesses are responsible for more than half of all new jobs.

    Today, these entrepreneurial job creators are running scared. That the White House vows to jack up taxes on those with “high incomes” (that is, entrepreneurs) is one reason why. Next year’s scheduled expiration of the Bush tax cuts that pulled the economy out of the 2001 recession is another.

    Higher income taxes, a flood of stiff new regulations and the possibility of at least $2 trillion in new taxes related to cap-and-trade and a health care overhaul over the next decade have created a climate of uncertainty – for small and large businesses alike.

    Businesses are hunkered down. They have $1 trillion in cash stashed away, but they won’t invest out of fear it’ll be taxed away or some government czar will tell them how to run their business.

    At the same time, banks have a record $800 billion in reserves but can’t seem to find any worthy borrowers.

    The White House claims its stimulus “saved or created” 640,000 to 1 million jobs. But no evidence shows that’s true. Stimulus has failed. If anything, borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to fund such feckless initiatives is destroying private-sector jobs. Time has come for a dramatic change of course.

    The Stimulus Plan Has Failed – Editorial, Investor’s Business Daily

     

    We need to take a different turn. Bill Gates and Warren Buffet offer splendid examples of great, capitalist fortunes put to social use, making the capitalism they exemplify more palatable. When modern corporations do this, we call it corporate social responsibility. More of this will clearly have to be done.

    But we also need to respond to the steady erosion of the American myth of mobility. Today, after nearly a quarter century of wage stagnation, and growing evidence that educational access for the poor has also declined, that myth is in a disastrous decline.

    We have to respond by improving education and by relieving anxiety through reforms that make health care part of a basic provision for the poor. These reforms strengthen capitalism. Without them, the economic populists will enjoy a success that they do not deserve.

    Jagdish Bhagwati is University Professor and Senior Fellow in International Economics at Columbia University. He is the author of In Defense of Globalization (Oxford, 2004) and Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade (Oxford, 2009).

    Feeble Critiques: Capitalism’s Petty Detractors
    Jagdish Bhagwati

     

    When Irving Kristol joined the new magazine Commentary, he distinguished himself from the other editors–Clement Greenberg, part-time then, Robert Warshow, and me. First, he had an interest in politics, real politics, electoral politics, and not just the politics of left-wing anti-Stalinists, mulling over what was living and what was dead in Marxism, the fate of socialism, the future of capitalism, communist influence in the intellectual world–no mean issues, but hardly ones to affect who won and who lost an election. So Irving discovered the wonderful political reporter and analyst Sam Lubell in the pages of The Saturday Evening Post, persuaded him to write for Commentary, and made me an enthusiast for his books, now hardly noted (although Sam Tanenhaus’s recently published The Death of Conservatism uses one of Lubell’s central theses as a guiding theme). None of the rest of us had ever read or noticed The Saturday Evening Post.

    http://www.tnr.com/article/books-and-arts/the-interested-man

     

    Paul Krugman has concentrated his fire recently on those “thumping their chests” over the falling dollar. He has particular scorn for those recommending a return to the gold standard. In Krugman’s view, a simple look at the historical facts will show that it was a superstitious fetish for the yellow metal that prolonged the Great Depression.

    A careful, comprehensive response to Krugman’s charges would involve an explanation of the classical gold standard, and the wonderful peace and prosperity it showered on the world. It was only after the major countries abandoned gold during World War I that major imbalances in international trade began to fester — imbalances that eventually exploded during the early 1930s.[1] As a good capitalist pig, I point the reader to my book on the Depression for the full story.

    Fortunately, we can take a shortcut in the present article. Using Krugman’s own graph, we can see that the case for abandoning gold — and devaluing currencies in the process — is not nearly as straightforward as he seems to think.


    http://mises.org/story/3778

     

    Once upon a (not long ago) time, there was a widely established set of blueprints for regimes of monetary and exchange rate policies, one expected to fit not only the full range of economies in the global arena, but also to serve as a guide for international monetary cooperation. Confidence in the effectiveness of those blueprints has been shattered by the scale and simultaneity of asset price booms and busts that led to the current global economic crisis. A reshuffle of views on monetary and exchange rate policies may turn out to be a companion to the revision of financial regulation.

    It is now increasingly accepted that, to some degree and width, mainstreaming reactions to asset price moves in monetary policy is to become a new norm. It is also becoming clear that the previous world of theoretical determinacy and optimum rules of conduct is to give place to less-obvious policy choices and more discretion.

    The purpose of this note is to highlight how the special complexity and indeterminacy intrinsic to international monetary-financial relations will deepen under the new regime. In the case of financial transactions between advanced financial systems and emerging markets, there is in addition an asymmetrical impact in terms of higher foreign reserve requirements on the latter.

    The determinate world of inflation targeting and exchange-rate corner solutions

    “The past 10 years have been the decade of inflation targeting. (…) Narrowly defined, inflation targeting commits central banks to annual inflation goals, invariably measured by the consumer price index (CPI), and to being judged on their ability to hit those targets. Flexible inflation targeting allows central banks to aim at both output and inflation, as enshrined in the famous Taylor Rule. The orthodoxy says that central banks should essentially pay no attention to asset prices, the exchange rate, or export prices, except to the extent that they are harbingers of inflation”(Frankel. 2009).

    Asset price cycles were seen as basically harmless – or non-significant as a channel of transmission of monetary policy, as in the case of developing economies without financial depth. Even when the frequent appearance of bubbles started to be acknowledged, the belief – “the Greenspan doctrine” – was that attempts to detect and prick them at an early stage would be impossible to accomplish and potentially harmful. If necessary, resorting to interest rate cuts to safeguard the economy after bubble bursts would be a safer procedure.

    Low and stable inflation could then be attained through a forecast-oriented, anticipatory manipulation of basic interest rates, as the single focus for monetary authorities. Movements of floating nominal exchange rates would reinforce the effectiveness of interest rates set to target inflation. Stable inflation would also lead to low risk premiums and higher financial stability.

    In the case of small countries, fixing the nominal exchange rate and abdicating of monetary policy would import stability from inflation-targeting countries. The “Great Moderation” period, with developed economies exhibiting relatively low inflation rates and output fluctuations from mid-80s onward, seemed to vindicate that confidence.

    This world of presumed stable and stabilizing monetary and financial spheres was shaken by the global financial crisis. With hindsight, asset price booms and busts became acknowledged as both increasingly pervasive and harmful: real-estate and stock-market booms leading to excess US household debt and to fragile asset-liability structures; a generalized bubble burst pushing the global economy to a quasi-collapse.

    Endogenous creation of liquidity and the “sea of bubbles”

    Chapter 3 of the latest IMF’s “World Economic Outlook” brings evidence on the presence of real-estate and stock-market asset price busts over the past 40 years (WEO – ch.3). The recent experience with widespread busts of both house and stock prices is singular in the last 40 years (Chart 1). However, one can observe not only the frequency of previous episodes, but also that those “asset price busts are relatively evenly distributed before and after 1985 – a year that broadly marks the beginning of the ‘Great Moderation’” (p.95).

    The Arrival of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy by Otaviano Canuto

     

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