How Goldman Sachs Created the Food Crisis Foreign Policy (hat tip reader May S). There is one misleading factoid in the story. It creates the impression that independent traders are the ones who make the most money from monthly commodities contract rolls. Not so. The practice is called “date rape” and its leading practitioner is….Goldman.

 

How can so many Americans believe that we’re in a depression, when the stock market and commodity prices have been booming?
Read the Rest…

 

At the height of the housing bubble, hedge-fund manager Paul Singer was shorting subprime mortgages. By the spring of 2007, he was warning regulators on both sides of the Atlantic that the world was facing a major financial crisis.

They ignored him. Now the founder of Elliott Management says the biggest banks are headed for another credit meltdown. Among the likely triggers for the next crisis, Mr. Singer sees one leading candidate: Monetary policy “is extremely risky,” he says, “the risk being massive inflation.”

In some areas gas prices have reached $4 per gallon, and now Americans must brace themselves for higher grocery bills. This week the Labor Department reported that February wholesale food prices posted their sharpest increase since 1974. News like that has driven Mr. Singer to the history books: He treats visitors to his 5th Avenue office to a copy of a 1931 treatise on German currency debasement, Constantino Bresciani-Turroni’s “The Economics of Inflation.”

Mr. Singer—who launched Elliott in 1977 and has delivered a 14.3% compound annual return (compared to the S&P 500′s 10.9%)—is not comparing today’s Federal Reserve to the Reichsbank of the early 1920s. Rather, he’s once again warning financial regulators. This time the message is: Don’t take for granted investor faith in a major currency.

Hedge-fund manager Paul Singer recognized the risks of subprime mortgages and bet against them. Now he warns that monetary policy could cripple American banks again.

Inflation: A Catalyst of the Next Financial Crisis? – James Freeman, WSJ

 

“With the Fed essentially spewing money it’s hard to know exactly where that money is going to go, which markets will get affected,” says Bob Gelfond, CEO at MQS Asset Management, a hedge fund based in New York. “It’s like putting on a giant fire hose. You can’t really control it that well.”

Despite any short-term gyrations, however, few are willing to declare commodities a bubble ready to pop.

Why Commodities May Be Better Bet Than Stocks Now – Jeff Cox, CNBC

 

Sugar and Coffee: Hard Spots in the Softs Market

  • Sugar and coffee have outperformed grains, meat and dairy. Supply deficits due to cane crop failures in India and weather damage to coffee in Colombia have kept sugar and coffee prices at multi-year highs. Sugar prices in August 2009 saw record highs, not seen since March 1981, due to shortages coming from major sugar producers in India, Brazil, and China.
 

Some view the issue from the standpoint of protecting free markets.  Is constraining speculation in commodities any different than controlling investment in stocks and bonds?  However, commodities are not traditional investment assets and their markets need governance that differs from that of the capital markets.   We readily accept limitations in capital market transactions:  prohibitions on insiders trading, for example.  Commodity markets have different but equally important rules, rules meant to ensure that speculators can’t overwhelm efficient market pricing.  It’s time for our regulators to enforce them.

Why Commodity Speculation Is Different – Jeff Korzenik, Financial Times

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