t’s a game of far more than two halves: more tactical than cricket, more stomach-churning than boxing and more complex than bridge. Throughout a magnificent summer of sport, one competition has lasted longer than any other, and generated the most heated debate. Its goal? To guess when the recession will end.

Every week, it seems, has brought new economic indicators, good or bad. Indeed, the whole thing has recently descended into farce: first, economists were tripping over themselves to declare that we were heading for a “V-shaped” recovery, in which we soared out of the downturn at speed. Then they realised that the economy had contracted in the first three months of the year at the fastest rate since, most probably, the 1930s (the quarterly figures don’t go back that far), and started talking about “double dips”.

When Recovery Comes, It Won’t Feel Like It – Ed Conway, Daily Telegraph

 

More than half the investors who go through a Wall Street arbitration get nothing at all, and those who do win get about half what they claim to have lost. Once they are in a hearing room, investors typically face a panel of three judges that includes someone from the very industry that got them into the mess in the first place — Wall Street.

Kangaroo Courts for Investors Continue – Susan Antilla, Bloomberg

 

Obama’s Regulatory Reform Isn’t Enough – Clive Crook, Financial Times

Barack Obama’s Regulatory Changes Are Hopeless – John Tamny, Forbes

 

The weekend G8 communiqué, coming after four months of stabilisation in most financial markets, seemed to mark the official end of the financial crisis. If so, what lessons should be learnt for economic and financial policies in the months ahead? The history of the crisis in the next few paragraphs may not be the standard version presented by most commentators and economists, yet recent events suggest it to be a plausible account of what went wrong.

The blunders that produced last autumn’s financial crisis had nothing to do with the supposedly inflationary monetary policies of Alan Greenspan, or the fiscal profligacy of Gordon Brown, or with Mervyn King’s lack of practical market experience, or Hu Jintao’s mercantilist approach to currencies and exports. All these and many other factors contributed to the vulnerability of the world economy, but none of them would have been enough to cause its near-collapse last autumn. For that we can blame the unforced errors of a man almost forgotten since he slipped quietly out of office at the beginning of this year: Henry Paulson, the former US Treasury Secretary and ex-chairman of Goldman Sachs.

To understand how a localised financial problem in one segment of the US mortgage market turned into a near-collapse of the global financial system we need to recall Mr Paulson’s astonishing misuse of mark-to-market accounting standards to expropriate the shareholders of Fannie Mae and then to bankrupt Lehman Brothers. What made matters even worse was his inability to understand the systemic consequences of what he was doing. Anyone who doubts the importance of individuals in economic history should recall that the single worst day of last autumn’s entire financial crisis, as measured by the widening of risk spreads on interbank credit, was September 23. That was the day Mr Paulson appeared before the Senate Finance Committee to explain what he wanted to do with the $700 billion he had requested from Congress. This was the moment when everyone realised the world’s most powerful economic official did not know what he was doing.

Once the key role of personalities and financial policies is recognised, it is hardly surprising that things began to improve almost as soon as Mr Paulson was replaced by a competent Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner. A collapse of share prices on Wall Street triggered by the Lehman bankruptcy in September ended the very day after President Obama responded to attacks on Mr Geithner’s personal probity by offering his unqualified support. A week later, the suicidal mark-to-market accounting regulations were dismantled. And it is no coincidence that the financial crisis, at least in America and Britain, effectively ended that week. From that point onwards, the US Government found itself collecting tens of billions of dollars in repayments from supposedly insolvent banks. Far from being forced to nationalise almost every bank and running out of money with which to refinance toxic assets, as predicted by panic-mongering Nobel Laureate economists, the US Treasury now finds itself almost embarrassed by the hundreds of billions of dollars it has budgeted for supporting a banking system that no longer needs state support.

Paulson Caused the Financial Crisis – Anatole Kaletsky, Times of London

 

June 15 (Bloomberg) — Everyone knows money buys influence. The entire lobbying industry is based on that premise.

Businesses hire teams of people to represent their “interests” to members of Congress. Lawmakers listen, and should they find those interests compelling enough to warrant, say, a tax credit or the insertion of another loophole in the already holey tax code, said lawmakers may find themselves richly rewarded.

Knowing a quid-pro-quo exists and quantifying the value of political connections are two different matters. For example, earlier this month Barney Frank, the powerful Democratic chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, persuaded General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Fritz Henderson to delay the closing of a GM parts distribution center in Norton, Massachusetts, which is in Frank’s district. (Frank also intervened to secure a $12 million cash injection from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program for OneUnited, a troubled Massachusetts bank.)

It sure looks as if the government’s stake in GM helped to persuade Henderson of the importance of saving the 80 jobs at the Norton center. Is there a way to determine how much it was worth to him?

Academics have tried to put a price tag on political connections, but often the ties between business and politicians are unknown or too hard to uncover. In many countries, information on lobbying and political contributions isn’t available to the public the way it is in the U.S.

Sudden Death Syndrome

Vanderbilt University economics professors David C. Parsley and Mara Faccio use a new approach to quantify political influence. In “Sudden Deaths: Taking Stock of Geographic Ties,” a paper that will appear in the June issue of the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, the authors put a price on how much local politicians help their local constituencies.

Specifically, they examine the stock price reactions following the sudden death of a local politician.

Parsley and Faccio begin with the premise that politicians favor local enterprises for obvious reasons: They need votes to get re-elected, they have family and friends in the district, they care about local jobs, etc.

Using geographic location as the framework for their analysis, the economists then use an unanticipated event — the sudden death of a politician — to tease out the effect on companies based in the same town. (Because the stock market incorporates all available information, only an unexpected event can be used to measure the reaction.)

‘Statistically Robust’

What they found from their worldwide study of 8,191 companies and 122 sudden deaths since 1973 was a 1.7 percent decline in geographically connected firms, meaning those companies headquartered in the town in which the politician was born or lived.

That didn’t sound like a lot to me, so I called Parsley with some questions.

“Political connections do have an impact, they are measurable, and it’s not just isolated cases,” he said. “By looking at sudden deaths, we get an idea of what the market thinks the connection is worth. Now it’s worthless because the person is dead.”

Is a 1.7 percent decline in the stock prices of those companies relative to the overall market “statistically robust,” as economists like to say?

“We haven’t been able to make it go away even though we tried different specifications and controlled for everything we could think of,” he said.

Zimbabwe Is Last

Parsley said the effect was greater if the politician sat or chaired an important committee. In those cases — if the geographically connected company was a bank, and the politician was chairman of the Senate Banking Committee — sudden death produced an average 4 percent decline in the stock price relative to the overall market.

Not surprisingly, there was wide variation across countries, with sudden death leading to an average 4 percent decline in politically connected companies in the U.S. and 10 percent in Zimbabwe. Connections matter a lot more to publicly traded family-owned businesses, which has implications for the overall economy.

“To the extent that politicians favor inefficient (family) firms by allocating resources to them, long-term economic growth will also be reduced,” according to the paper.

In addition, the authors found that politically connected firms “suffer a statistically significant decline in sales growth” and access to credit between the year prior to the sudden death and the year after.

Health Care Initiative

Is there a message in all this?

“Stock prices should be unpredictable; nobody can predict them,” Parsley said. “Yet we have a model that can predict stock returns.”

He’s not suggesting we commit murder most foul and trade off it. It is possible, based on the results of the study, to stay on top of the obituaries, short some politically connected companies and walk away with a profit.

I started to think about the broader implications, now that many of the nation’s largest companies, including banks, insurance companies and auto manufacturers, are connected not only to their local politician but to the federal government, up to and including the president. What happens if Barney departs for that great domed chamber in the sky?

Given the impact of sudden-death syndrome on a company’s stock price, we might want to mandate and underwrite more health and wellness programs for our elected representatives.

(Caroline Baum, author of “Just What I Said,” is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

 

It’s starting to look like the spring awakening in bank stocks may not be enough to save the CEOs of America’s biggest troubled banks, Citigroup’s Vikram Pandit and Bank of America’s Ken Lewis.

A top banking regulator is agitating for Pandit’s removal, according to a report Friday in the Wall Street Journal. The clash between Pandit and Sheila Bair, the head of the Federal Insurance Deposit Corp., comes just a month after restive shareholders at Charlotte-based BofA (BAC, Fortune 500) stripped CEO Lewis of his chairmanship.

The FDIC told CNN it had no comment on the story. Citi (C, Fortune 500) says it stands behind Pandit, who took over as CEO at the end of 2007 and has spent much of his tenure trying to clean up the messes left by his predecessors Chuck Prince and Sandy Weill.

In a statement to CNN Friday, Citi chairman Dick Parsons said the company was “confident in our management.”

BofA has similarly endorsed Lewis, and the three-month-long rally in bank stocks has quieted talk of wholesale government takeovers of these firms.

But given the massive investor losses at these banks and the failure of their top managers to anticipate the industry’s meltdown last year, few would shed a tear at either executive’s departure.

“These companies are sort of the poster children for the excesses that created this crisis,” said Eric Jackson, an activist investor and managing member of Ironfire Capital in Naples, Fla. “I think it’s appropriate for the regulators to push for substantial changes in management and on the boards.” Jackson’s firm does not own shares of either bank.

Citi and BofA have been the two biggest bank recipients of federal aid since the financial crisis erupted last fall. Together they have taken some $500 billion in federal aid, the lion’s share of which has come in the form of federal guarantees of their troubled assets.

Recently, both firms have shown some signs that they have broken out of what earlier this year looked like terminal decline.

Shares of Citi have tripled since Pandit surprised Wall Street by saying Citi was on track for its first quarterly profit since mid-2007. BofA’s stock price has quadrupled during the same time frame.

Both banks went on to report better-than-expected first-quarter results in April. Those surprises further boosted the shares even as many observers warned the numbers were padded by one-time gains and legal but incredible accounting maneuvers, such as profits tied to the declining value of the banks’ own debt.

The hopes of a banking sector recovery only intensified after regulatory stress tests showed banks didn’t need that much more money. The findings helped spur a surge of capital raising from the private sector that has bolstered the balance sheets of many big institutions.

Citigroup’s Vikram Pandit Is On the Hot Seat – Colin Barr, Fortune



 

Stanford University economics professor and former Treasury Undersecretary John B. Taylor has shown how the proposed additional U.S. government debt could cause 100 percent inflation over the next few years, which means most people will see their real standard of living fall as prices double. Long-term interest rates on U.S. government debt have jumped a colossal 81 percent (annualized) in just the last five months and seem slated to go higher as markets see the increased risk of future inflation.

To ameliorate some of the inflation, immature political minds (and even a few immature economists) argue for a massive tax increase to pay for all of the new debt. Mr. Taylor estimates the tax increase would have to be about 60 percent, which, of course, would kill incentives to work, save and invest and would result in a stagnant economy, or worse, massive unemployment.

For centuries in the United States, and even before under English common law, bond holders were secure in the knowledge that in a business failure they would be first in line to collect from the sale of the assets. Suddenly, the immature actors in the Obama administration have overturned well-established bankruptcy law and put a politically favored union ahead of the bond holders in the case of Chrysler and General Motors Corp.

Immaturity In Economic Power – Richard Rahn, Washington Times


 

June 2 (Bloomberg) — Imagine a novel of more than a thousand pages, published half a century ago. The author doesn’t have a talk-radio show and has been dead for 27 years.

As for the storyline, it is beyond dated: Humorless executives fight with humorless public officials over an industry that is, today, almost irrelevant to the U.S. economy – - railroads. The prose itself is a disconcerting mixture of philosophy, industrial policy, and bodice-ripping: “The wind blew her hair to blend with his. She knew why he had wanted to walk through the mountains tonight.”

In short, you would think “Atlas Shrugged” might be long forgotten.

Instead, Ayn Rand’s novel is remembered more than ever. This year the book is selling at a faster rate than last year. Last year, sales were about 200,000, higher than any year before that, including 1957, when the book was published.

Some assumed the libertarian philosopher would fall from view when the Berlin Wall fell. Or that at least there would be a sense of mission accomplished. One Rand fan, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, wrote in his memoir that he regretted Rand hadn’t lived until 1989 or 1990. She’d missed the collapse of communism that she had so often predicted.

But “Atlas Shrugged” is becoming a political “Harry Potter” because Rand shone a spotlight on a problem that still exists: Not pre-1989 Soviet communism, but 2009-style state capitalism. Rand depicted government and companies colluding in the name of economic rescue at the expense of the entrepreneur. That entrepreneur is like the titan Atlas who carries the rest of the world on his shoulders — until he doesn’t.

Back Ache

You get the feeling plenty of Atlases are shrugging these days, in part because their tax burden is getting heavier. It’s interesting to compare sales of “Atlas Shrugged,” provided by the Ayn Rand Institute, to Internal Revenue Service distribution tables.

In 1986, a year when “Atlas Shrugged” sold between 60,000 and 80,000 copies, the top 1 percent of earners paid 26 percent of the income tax. By 2000, that 1 percent was paying 37 percent, and “Atlas Shrugged” sales were at 120,000. By 2006, the top 1 percent carried 40 percent of the burden.

Yet President Barack Obama has made it clear he would like to see the rich pay a greater share. Anyone irked at that prospect can find consolation in Rand’s fantasy, in which the most valued professionals evaporate from the work place because of such demands.

Sounding Weird

The hard-money monologue of Rand’s copper king, Francisco d’Anconia, used to sound weird. Who even thought about gold in the early 1990s? Now, D’Anconia’s lecture on the unreliable dollar sounds like it could have been scripted by Zhou Xiaochuan, or some other furious Chinese central banker:

“Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, ‘Account overdrawn.’”

Other “Atlas Shrugged” characters are likewise relevant: Orren Boyle of Associated Steel, one of the corrupt businessmen, is so skilled at anticipating what government will do that he could have taught Jeff Immelt a few tricks. Wesley Mouch, the Washington fringe-character-turned-politician who unexpectedly makes his way to center stage, recalls Timothy Geithner at Treasury in his early days.

Game of Pretend

Rand knew that government tends to drive the most- productive economic figures away even as it pretends to utilize them. Today’s shortage of primary care doctors serves as an example. Various administrations, Democratic and Republican, have tried to nudge more medical students into primary care. Young doctors simply haven’t complied. That is in part because of the higher compensation of specialties. But it is also because the great charm of being a primary care doctor — autonomy to work in a range of areas — has been removed.

Rand foresaw this: “Let them discover the kind of doctors that their system will now produce,” says one of her characters. “It is not safe to place their lives in the hands of a man whose life they have throttled.”

Long before managed-care existed, Rand was describing doctors’ frustration with it.

Most compelling is Rand’s understanding of how politicians’ lack of imagination can kill economies. Of all American governors, Arnold Schwarzenegger of California is the one who most resembles Rand’s outsized characters.

Missing Gene

Yet Schwarzenegger seems to be missing the Rand gene. His policies are all pain and no growth. As the Randerati have been quick to note, California’s uncompetitive treatment of film production is driving Hollywood out of California. Yet Schwarzenegger moved disappointingly late to sign legislation that would even begin to address that problem.

Rand’s persistent heroine Dagny Taggart lectures a public official, but substitute Schwarzenegger for the official and the dialogue still makes sense:

Dagny: “Start decontrolling.”

Schwarzenegger: “Huh?”

Dagny: “Start lifting taxes and removing controls.”

Schwarzenegger: “Oh no, no, no, that’s out of the question.”

Dagny: “Out of whose question?”

In short, it’s time for all of us in policy land to tip our collective hat — though she detested collective anythings — to Ayn Rand. Politics today is proving dramatic enough to change even literary tastes.

(Amity Shlaes, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

Rand’s Atlas Is Shrugging With a Growing Load – Amity Shlaes, Bloomberg

 

With the economy floundering, Wall Street in disgrace, and American capitalism facing its most serious ideological challenge in one, two, or three generations (you can take your pick), it’s a good moment to remember Lenin. While the bearded Bolshevik’s grasp of economics was never the best and his stock picks remain a mystery, he would have grasped the politics of our present situation all too well. The old butcher would not have found anything especially surprising about the rise of Barack Obama, the nature of his supporters, or the evolution of his policies. He would have simply asked his usual question: Kto/kogo (“Who/whom”). The answer would tell him almost everything he needed to know. Lenin regarded politics as binary–a zero sum game with winners, losers, and nothing in between. For him it was a bare-knuckled brawl that ultimately could be reduced to that single brutal question: who was on top and who was not. Who was giving orders to whom. Hope and Change, nyet so much.

Of course, it would be foolish to deny the role that things like idealism, sanctimony, fashion, hysteria, exhaustion, restlessness, changing demographics, Hurricane Katrina, an unpopular war, George W. Bush, and mounting economic alarm played in shaping last November’s Democratic triumph. Nevertheless if we peer through the smug, self-congratulatory smog that enveloped the Obama campaign, the outlines of a harder-edged narrative can be discerned, a narrative that bolsters the idea that Lenin’s cynical maxim has held up better than the state he created.

So, who in 2008 was Who, and who Whom?

Millionaires’ Brawl:A Power Struggle – Andrew Stuttaford, Weekly Standard

 

This recession is now the worst since at least 1958, which is as far back as the index of coincident indicators stretches back.

The Conference Board reported today that the index, which is intended to measure how the economy is doing on an overall basis, slipped a little in April. The decline was smaller than in previous months, and two of the four indicators edged up, which could be taken as a sign that the economy is at least getting worse at a slower pace.

As I noted last month, the index was nearing the 5.6 percent decline that it experienced in the 1973-1975 recession. Now it is down 5.7 percent.

One way to put that into perspective is that the decline so far in this recession is more than the maximum falls combined in the two previous recessions, in the early 1990s and then in 2001.

“..the decline so far in this recession is more than the maximum falls combined in the two previous receptions, in the early 1990s and then in 2001.” (Floyd Norris)

 

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Bernanke’s wager is on a virtual free lunch by printing money.

“Fed chair Ben Bernanke has long argued that central banks can bring down long-term borrowing rates by purchasing bonds “at essentially no cost”. His frequent writings rarely ask whether foreigner investors – from a different cultural universe – will tolerate such conduct. Mr Bernanke is betting that under a floating currency regime there is no risk of repeating the disaster of October 1931, when the Fed had to raise rates twice to stem foreign gold withdrawals, with catastrophic consequences.”

 

An important question at Custerstock:

Are activist investors to blame for horrible corporate balance sheets? (Clusterstock)

On Squawk Box this morning, DealBook maven Andrew Ross Sorkin made some comments about the role investor activism played in getting companies to lever up their balance sheets during the boom times.

That this happened is indisputable, as conservative boards and executives were constantly getting pilloried for taking on too-little debt, paying out too low of a dividend or not executing stock buybacks rapidly enough.

The converse to this idea is that more entrenched, conservative boards, impervious to investor activists would’ve been more likely to resist the temptation of leverage. (If there’s any academic literature on this question, please let us know.)

Perhaps the most striking thing, though, is not just that companies and investors levered up during the boom times (that’s obvious, people always think that they’ll last forever) but that calls for more buybacks and debt were occurring very late into 2007, early 2008. We remember going to media industry banking-sponsored in early 2008, when it seemed pretty obvious that the writing should be on the wall, and yet investors would barrage management with requests for more buybacks. As we wrote, elsewhere, companies frequently complied.

Too bad more boards didn’t have the spine to stick with common sense.

 

It was surely a surprise when the WSJ hired Thomas Frank to write an opinion column. Anyone who has read either of his bestsellers, What’s The Matter With Kansas? or The Wrecking Crew understands that his view of American politics just doesn’t fit in with the other editorial page writers there. I, for one, am very happy he is writing there and his column today should be required reading for every citizen who cares about the future of this country.

Why Congress Won’t Investigate Wall Street
Republicans and Democrats would find themselves in the hot seat.

The famous Pecora Commission of 1933 and 1934 was one of the most successful congressional investigations of all time, an instance when oversight worked exactly as it should. The subject was the massively corrupt investment practices of the 1920s. In the course of its investigation, the Senate Banking Committee, which brought on as its counsel a former New York assistant district attorney named Ferdinand Pecora, heard testimony from the lords of finance that cemented public suspicion of Wall Street. Along the way, the investigations formed the rationale for the Glass-Steagall Act, the Securities Exchange Act, and other financial regulations of the Roosevelt era.

A new round of regulation is clearly in order these days, and a Pecora-style investigation seems like a good way to jolt the Obama administration into action. After all, the financial revelations of today bear a striking resemblance to those of 1933. In his own account of his investigation, Pecora described bond issues that were almost certainly worthless, but which 1920s bankers sold to uncomprehending investors anyway. He told of the bonuses which the bankers thereby won for themselves. He also told of the lucrative gifts banks gave to lawmakers from both political parties. And then he told of the banking industry’s indignation at being made to account for itself. It regarded the outraged public, in Pecora’s shorthand, as a “howling mob.”

The idea of a new Pecora investigation is catching on, particularly, but not exclusively, on the left.

It’s probably not going to happen, though, in the comprehensive way that it should. The reason is that understanding our problems, this time around, would require our political leaders to examine themselves.

The crisis today is not solely one of bank misbehavior. This is also about the failure of the regulators — the Wall Street policemen who dozed peacefully as the crime of the century went off beneath the window.

We have all heard the official explanation for this failure, that “the structure of our regulatory system is unnecessarily complex and fragmented,” in the soothing words of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. But no proper Pecora would be satisfied with such piffle. The system was not only complex, it was compromised and corrupted and thoroughly rotten even in the spots where its mandate was simple.

After all, we have for decades been on a national crusade to slash red tape and stifle regulators. Over the years, federal agencies have been defunded, their workers have grown dispirited, their managers, drawn in many cases from antiregulatory organizations, have seemed to care far more about industry than the public.

Consider in this connection the 2003 photograph, rapidly becoming an icon of the Bush years, in which James Gilleran, then the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision (it regulates savings and loan associations) can be seen in the company of several jolly bank industry lobbyists, holding a chainsaw to a pile of rule books. The picture not only tells us more about our current fix than would a thousand pages about overlapping jurisdictions; it also reminds us why we may never solve the problem of regulatory failure. To do so, we would have to examine the apparent subversion of the regulatory system by the last administration. And that topic is supposedly off limits, since going there would open the door to endless partisan feuding.

But it’s not only Republicans who would feel the sting of embarrassment. Launching Pecora II would automatically raise this question: Whatever happened to the reforms put in place after the first go-round?

Now a different picture comes to mind. It’s Bill Clinton in November of 1999, surrounded by legislators of both parties, giving a shout-out to his brilliant Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and signing the measure that overturned Glass-Steagall’s separation of investment from commercial banking. Mr. Clinton is confident about what he is doing. He knows the lessons of history, he talks glibly about “the new information-age global economy” that was the idol of deep thinkers everywhere in those days. “[T]he Glass-Steagall law is no longer appropriate to the economy in which we live,” he says. “It worked pretty well for the industrial economy, which was highly organized, much more centralized, and much more nationalized than the one in which we operate today. But the world is very different.”

It turns out the world hadn’t changed much after all. But the Democratic Party sure had. And while today’s chastened Democrats might be ready to reregulate the banks, they are no more willing to scrutinize the bad ideas of the Clinton years than Republicans are the bad ideas of the Bush years.

“We may now need to be reminded what Wall Street was like before Uncle Sam stationed a policeman at its corner,” Pecora wrote in 1939, “lest, in time to come, some attempt be made to abolish that post.”

Well, the time did come. The attempt was made. And we could use that reminder today.

The odds are against us but if Congress won’t do the right thing here, it is incumbent on all of us in the blogoshpere to keep raising awareness of every policy inconsistency and hypocrisy we see. Sooner or later, public opinion will catch up to the truth.

 
How Sudden Failures Happen Gradually

08:53 PM Thursday April 09, 2009

By Susan Cramm
The book Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me) discusses the psychological need feel competent — even when evidence to the contrary abounds. The AIG debacle revealed a classic illustration of this in the denial of responsibility by ex-CEO Maurice Greenberg. He said, “I don’t feel any responsibility at all…how can I be responsible for something that happened when I’m not there?”

Let’s get real. Mr. Greenberg worked at AIG for 38 years and left less than 4 years ago. He hired the people currently in charge and “was behind the expansion push that included creating the financial productions unit that nearly sand the firm after he left in 2005.” With due respect to the octogenarian, is this any way for a grown up to behave?

Everyone knows that things fail gradually, then all at once. The seeds of AIG’s destruction were surely planted, watered and tilled by Mr. Greenberg and his fellow leader-gardeners.

Everyone makes mistakes. Grownups take responsibility, even if they didn’t have a clue that their upsides would be somebody else’s downsides. There’s only one form of mistake that is unforgivable — that’s when leaders know what’s right and do what’s wrong.

Let me give you an example from the world of IT. My last post discussed a “clean up as you go” approach to fight the natural forces of entropy that creep in to our systems, confounding leaders in their quest to change their organization to capitalize on marketplace opportunities and competitive realities.

Last week, while chatting with a very talented IT leader, I heard a tale of “mess up as you go.” He proposed cleaning up some critical enterprise data as part of an upcoming project. It involved creating a master record of data that currently resides in multiple places, attached to applications supporting various silos. This is a no-brainer. Something you do because it’s the right thing to do; additional effort that will bring no accolades. Something you do not for yourself, but for your grandchildren.

And yet, surprisingly, his boss was laissez-faire in her response.

There are only three reasons why people don’t do what they should: they don’t have time to, they don’t know how to, or they don’t want to. It wasn’t that she disagreed with the recommendation or was concerned about the additional costs or time. She just didn’t care — she didn’t want to do it because it wasn’t important to her.

She may have been distracted or reflecting the short term, feel-good, me-centered leadership that causes individuals, families, companies, economies, and government to fail gradually, then all at once. Regardless, it’s a mistake happening in real time — completely avoidable and without accountability.

Our individual, seemingly small actions create the building blocks of tomorrow and leaders have a profound responsibility to leave their world a little better than they found it. Fundamentally, this requires the personal integrity and courage to think deeply about the ramifications of today’s actions and admit mistakes.

What are you doing today to create the positive legacy you want to leave behind?

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